Poker Bot Earn Rates & Variance

by admin on June 24, 2008

Winning & Losing Streaks In Sit & Go Tournaments

There is no direct answer to “how much money does ICM-Bot make?” Typically when people talk about earn rates they are referring to $/hour. For sit & gos, these figures are only reliable after a large sample of tournaments. Until then, earn rates tend to vary widely. The top sit & go players in the world are very familiar with 500-game (and even more) break-even streaks. Alternatively, weaker players can often achieve impressive results over 200-game streaks.

ICM-Bot Variance & Earn Rate

ICM-Bot plays push/fold poker that, over time, will show a profit due to its fundamental, mathematically correct decisions.

However, this does not give you an idea of the results you can expect to see in the short term. Here is a hypothetical look at what you can expect from a sample of four $6.50 turbo sit & go tournaments. The following situations are examples of our poker bot’s maximum winnings and losses for a four table session.

Maximum Winnings @ $6.50 Buy-In

  • 1st = $27.00 - $6.5 = $20.50
  • 1st = $27.00 - $6.5 = $20.50
  • 1st = $27.00 - $6.5 = $20.50
  • 1st = $27.00 - $6.5 = $20.50

Net Earnings = $+82.00

Maximum Losses @ $6.50 Buy-In

  • 4th-9th = -$6.5
  • 4th-9th = -$6.5
  • 4th-9th = -$6.5
  • 4th-9th = -$6.5

Net Earnings = $-26.00

These numbers are insignificant without applying probabilities to the chances of finishing 1st vs. the chances of finishing 4th-9th. The situations above are just an example of the role variance plays in earn rate samples and bankroll fluctuation. Again, many world-class sit & go professionals have gone 15+ tournaments without a single finish in the money. They have also had instances where they have won 5+ sit & gos in a row! Tournament poker is a funny game!

Average Finish Positions

After a large enough sample of games, you will begin to see a pattern of results from ICM-Bot. If you were to plot out its finish positions, the poker bot’s results would closely resemble something like this:

1: ***************

2: ***********

3: **************

4: **************

5: **************

6: ************

7: **********

8: ******

9: ****